The IBM Institute for Business Value released a report on January 19, 2026, based on a global survey of 2,007 senior executives conducted in late 2025.
Nearly eight in ten (79%) respondents expect artificial intelligence to significantly contribute to their organization’s revenue by 2030, compared with 40% who say it does so today.
Only 24% of executives have a clear understanding of the specific sources of that revenue. Executives anticipate AI investment to increase by about 150% as a percentage of revenue between 2025 and 2030.
Currently, 47% of AI spending focuses on efficiency gains, but respondents project that 62% will target innovation in products, services, and business models by 2030. The survey also shows executives expect AI to boost productivity by 42% by the end of the decade, with 67% believing they will capture most of those gains.
The report highlights broader shifts, including 72% of respondents expecting small language models to surpass large language models in prominence by 2030, and 82% anticipating multi-model AI capabilities. In addition, 67% of executives foresee AI eliminating current resource and skills constraints.
Why This Matters Today
These findings arrive as companies accelerate AI adoption amid competitive pressures and rapid technological change. The survey points to a transition from using AI primarily to cut costs toward deploying it for new growth opportunities.
Executives plan to reinvest productivity gains – 70% indicate this intent – into expansion initiatives, creating a cycle where efficiency funds innovation.
A notable gap persists: while optimism about AI’s revenue impact is high, uncertainty about execution remains widespread. Sixty-eight percent of respondents worry that their AI initiatives could fail due to poor integration with core business operations.
The report also notes workforce implications, with 57% expecting most current employee skills to become obsolete by 2030 and 67% anticipating shorter-lived job roles.
Broader industry implications include the rise of tailored AI models built on proprietary data for competitive differentiation, alongside emerging technologies like quantum computing – 59% believe quantum-enabled AI will transform their sectors, though only 27% expect to use quantum by then.
Our Key Takeaways:
- Surveyed executives expect AI to significantly contribute to revenue for 79% of organizations by 2030, up sharply from 40% today.
- Productivity is projected to rise 42% through AI by 2030, with most gains reinvested into growth rather than retained as cost savings.
- Business leaders should watch the shift toward small, customized models and multi-model approaches, as well as progress in closing the gap between AI ambition and practical integration.
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